Log in

No account? Create an account

Previous Entry | Next Entry

Will Bella and Edward get a divorce?

Well is hard to apply real life rules to a fictional couple on a fantasy setting. But I like this Time magazine article so I’m going to use it to see what their odds are. I will use other models on later installments to evaluate this beloved/hated couple. This is a fragment of it. You can read the whole article here:

Will This Marriage Last?






Let's group the risk factors into three. The first grouping is the couple's relationship. The second grouping is financial issues. The third grouping is their family history.


Regarding the couple, their age matters. If they are just out of high school, that's not so good. (No surprise.) The odds improve dramatically if they're at least 25 — but don't assume the older the better. Marrying at age 35 is not any better than age 25.


*Well this is one point against them making it, since Bella is just out of HS. Now with Edward is whether really bad since he is just out of high school for like the seventh time, so he has more age to counteract Bella’s or he has more risks. I’m counting it as a point against them. -1.


Most couples today cohabit before they marry. The crucial issue here is whether they moved in together with the full intention to get married, or whether they moved in together just because it was the logical thing to do, since he was always at her place anyway. You might think that living together is a sort of "trial period" that helps prevent bad marriages, since they can break up before taking an oath to each other. But the odds suggest the opposite; they divorce more. Why doesn't this filter work? Very likely, whatever it was that made them not want to get married in the first place ended up becoming a problem long-term.


* Point in favor they didn’t lived together before getting married. 1


If the couple has ever invited you over for dinner, you've got a good clue there. Does the groom substantially help with the housework, cleaning, and cooking? If he does, this may be one of the most important predictors of all. We don't usually think about this when they are standing at the altar, but the bride will definitely be thinking about it in two years if her husband has left all the chores to her. A man who does housework is also going to be involved in childrearing — another major benefit to the couple.


*Well they are not going to trash the house a lot, but Edward learned how to cook for Bella in spite he doesn’t eat, so he looks like he would had not problem with sharing the few chores they will have. 1


If this is a second marriage, for either bride or groom, their odds of divorce are somewhat higher. Remarried families have more complex issues to confront: exes to deal with, and stepchildren to raise. But this risk is often overstated; a middle-class second marriage has only 3% more risk than a first marriage.


* Point in favor first marriage for both. 1


Being religious doesn't make a couple happier with their marriage, but it does mean they might try a little harder to stick it out. FYI, among the major religions, Catholics get divorced the least. Protestants the most. But what is really important here is not what religion they are, but how devoted they are to practicing their faith. You're right to worry if the bride insisted that they get married in the chapel, when the groom really wanted a wedding at the beach.


* Since neither of them have religions or attend to church , but Edward does have strong believes about God and virtue and Bella understood in the end how important it was for him. I counting this as point on favor. 1


Let's talk money. Money helps, a lot — but a relatively small amount of money goes a long way. If this couple will earn a modest $50,000 as a family, their odds of seeing their 15th anniversary jump to 68%. By and large, well-off couples divorce over personality conflicts while poorer couples divorce over alcoholism, physical abuse, and money problems. (Infidelity is a frequent deal-breaker, rich or poor.)


* Edward’s family is rich and they have few requirements so point on favor. 1


If you've heard that the bride and groom have been hunting for a house to buy, that's a good sign. Homeowners aren't happier in marriage than renters, but there's a permanence to their life — a connection to a community. The house is also a roadblock to divorce, being hard to divide.


* They own a couple of houses now and a cottage so point in favor. 1


Now for the really fun stuff — their families. Pay close attention to the parents of the bride and groom. Are they divorced? If so, it's been known for some time that their children are at higher risk of divorce when they marry. It's quite significant — it raises their odds of divorce by 14%. But you need to know a little more before applying this handicap. Before the parents divorced, was their conflict loud and visible to the children? Or was their conflict kept hushed behind closed doors? Surprisingly, it's the children of the latter who are getting divorced. Growing up in a home where they thought everything was fine — until their parents suddenly announced their divorce — leads those children not to trust their relationships.


* Bella’s parents are divorced, but she was a baby when that happened, still Bella had a lot her reservations on marriage. So point against them on Bella’s part but in Edward's case both set of parents remained married for as long as they lived so is a 50/50 here. Half a point. ½


Watch the bride and her father as they walk down the aisle. Are they tense with each other? If so, that's bad. Women with poor relationships to their fathers are more likely to get divorced from their husband. That's not the case for the groom — the quality of his relationship to his father does not impact his odds.


* This is a tricky one, Charlie and Bella love each other but Bella didn’t involved him a lot on her life and she was already a big girl when she went to live on his house. And they are both very private persons. However at the wedding and before it they looked very close and he will visit them and their daughter. So half a point. ½


And the total is:

7 on favor and 1 against them. So they are very likely to stay together.


Of course this article doesn’t take in account two people that will live forever. But its interesting to see how much of the risks they have in favor or against.

More next time.